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Re: The Numbers of Elendil's Escapee Folowers | White Council Forum Archive - msg 2201

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Topic: Re: The Numbers of Elendil's Escapee Folowers    Reply to: msg 2149
Posted: February 13, 1999 at 21:53:03: by Oberon

: Wooden ships have an inbuilt size limitation beyond which "Hogging" (the ends of a ship drooping relative to the midship) becomes excessive and results in appalling sailing characteristics. In the age of Nelson the largest ships in the world were the great three-decker warships, such as the Victory of 100 guns. These ships, particularly the 120 gun vessels such as the French Commerce de Marseilles or the British Caledonian, were reaching the upper size limit for wooden construction. Indeed the largest vessel in the world, the Spanish Santissima Trinidad of 130 guns, had perhaps exceeded the limits as she was noted to be a poor sailer and was on the point of being relegated to harbour duties when she was destroyed at Trafalgar.
: These ships had a crew of around 1000 men, and they were very tightly packed together.

: Returning to the Numenoreans, we can assume that they would be capable of building ships up to this size limitation and as their ships had to be capable of ocean voyages they would not have attempted to build beyond the limitations as their sailing abilities would have been badly compromised.

Population estimates - one of my favorite topics as well.

There *is* a built-in assumption on your part here - the strength and density of the wood involved. If we assume that the nature of trees in Second Age Middle Earth (or Numenor) is little different from contemporary trees, your point stands. And some of Tolkien's comments about trees make me wonder on this score. There is also another possibility: that the Numenoreans used special arts - or what we might call "magic" - to give special strength to the wood. We simply don't know.

Assuming the same wood and (largely) the same naval technology, I'm inclined to agree with Michael that the survivors likely did not number more than a few thousand. They needed room not only for a few weeks of stores and food, but also for the numerous artifacts, weapons, etc. that they intended to take with them - and I doubt that they would have packed their womenfolk and children cheek by jowel like British tars.

And yet...even granting the power and stature of the Numenoreans at their height, one wonders how they achieved so much with so few numbers - particularly in view of the mighty host they were able to raise a mere century later for the War of the Last Alliance. Numenorean fertility being what it was, I can't imagine there was a sudden population explosion to account for it.

It will be pointed out, of course, that many of the Faithful had already left for Middle Earth. Tolkien, however, only makes reference to significant numbers settling about the mouths of Anduin. What of Eriador? Only four ships arrived in the North, which is not much to build a kingdom out of, let alone the mighty host that gathered at Rivendell a century later. I think we must allow for the possibility that more sailed with Elendil than suspected, and therefore that, by special arts, the ships were larger as well. The only other possibility is that large numbers of the faithful had left for Eriador (as well as Pelargir) in the weeks - and years - before the Downfall.




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