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Topic: Xenite.Org Polls Analysis    Reply to: msg
Posted: February 04, 2000 at 21:47:16: by Alan Herward
I hope I am placing this in the right place on this thread so that it will be read. I would like to make an analysis of the statistics as imported from the xenite.com movie fact/rumour page regarding the Medieval look for the upcoming film. I hold a degree in Economics (focus in statistics, for whatever that is worth), and have spent a good deal of time working with polls, data relevance and such.

The data can be interpreted like this:

Among those polled. . .

41% feel that Middle-Earth should be portrayed, in the movie, as "medieval, medieval, medieval", this can be assumed that they wish the film to be very medieval in look.

A combined 25% would like to see the film as either an English village, classical, or pre-historic as opposed to medieval or mixed.

31% would like to see it depicted in mixed eras, which we should, given the nature of this poll and the influence of the other options upon poll takers, assume includes the other eras (medieval, classical, English village, pre-historic).

With regards to medieval-istic look to the movie we can determine that 41% of the people polled, plus some undetermined portion of the 31% mixed group (perhaps all of them), would like to see the medieval period used as a guide for some or all of the film. If one were to use this poll as a guide to making the movie the film should, to please the greatest portion of the audience (as represented by the polled individuals), be portrayed as very medieval in appearance, but should also include some elements of the other eras. The other acceptable alternative would be to portray it as "medieval, medieval, medieval".

So, using the poll as a guide or a statistical indicator of the views of the readers (assuming the people polled have read the books), there is quite a great deal of the medieval in the Lord of the Rings. It is true that that as few as 41% and as many as 72% of those polled want to see the movie portrayed with a medieval look.

I myself, having enjoyed the books a number of times, would agree. If it were me I would portray it as mosttly medieval-istic with some other influences (classical, pre-historical, even something not at all associated with our history (elves), etc.). By the way, I think that the film will work better if it is not outlandish, bizarre, Zena-like (haha), but recognizably "real" in tone. I think that will be true to the readership (given the poll) and will help those who have not read the books to take it as serious art and not campy and flighty. Also it will make the maority of the rabid Tolkien fans happy (judging by this poll) if the film is done with a medieval look.

As a last comment, directed toward the heart of this thread in which I am participating: should we not conclude, given that 41%-72% of readers (as indicated by the poll) see so much medieval in the books, that there is a lot of medieval in the book? Either that or the author achieved something that he did not intend. . . Of course, as a statistician I must point out that this conclusion is not completely sound according to the strictest rules of logic. However, it is food for thought.



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