: : :Any initial efforts he might have made to determine if the
: : : Ring still existed apparently failed, since he didn't start
: : : searching for it until late in the third millennium.

: : This presumes, yet again, that we know what Sauron was doing
: : from 1050 - 2939 T.A. But we don't. None of us have any
: : evidence that Sauron was not pondering where the ring may have
: : ended up all the while, and even searching for it
: : unsuccessfully. We know only that by the 2800s Gandalf
: : discovered that he was searching. We have no record whatsoever
: : of when he started searching -- it was sometime _before_
: : Gandalf's arrival. We have no idea when.

: We do have a pretty good of idea of when he would have started searching for the Ring: after 2463, the year Deagol found it. This was only 3 years after Sauron's return to Dol Guldur, and there is no indication that Sauron was looking for the Ring at this time.

I agree that we can reasonably presume that Sauron was not searching around the Gladden Fields before this time. That, however, doesn't seem to me to show that he was not trying to find out where the ring was long before this, and simply had not found out yet about Isildur's end.

[snip]

: : : Sauron, according to Gandalf, didn't think anyone would
: : : consider destroying the Ring. Sauron's objective was to
: : : recapture the Ring before it could be used against him (which
: : : is what he expected). People are often blinded by their own
: : : expectations and reasoning to the reasoning of others.

: : I think everyone agrees with this. It's the other assumption,
: : that the ring must have been destroyed at the end of the second
: : age, that's problematic. That one seems out of character.

: It would be out of character for Sauron to expect anyone to want to destroy the Ring, but he probably never expected to be overcome in the Second Age. His opinions of what happened after the final combat on Orodruin could have been influenced by the fact that there was no new master of the Ring in the Third Age. It had simply vanished from all knowledge.

Well, I suppose that makes sense. But again, (barring other evidence) his conviction that the ring would have been destroyed would have to have been enough that he would not even consider the possibility that the ring still existed -- not just enough to make him think that _maybe_ it happened. Seems still insufficient.

The two matters that you and Rob Roy have brought up that I'm now considering are (1) that Sauron might have been fooled by the fact that another dark lord had not arisen, and (2) that perhaps Gandalf learned of Sauron's suspicion that the ring had been destroyed from Gollum.

I'll think it over. Thanks for the suggestions.

: [snip]

: : But you seem deeply opposed, for no reason I can figure, to
: : even considering my suggestion, namely that Aragorn appears to
: : Sauron in the guise of the heir of Isildur, as he does at least
: : two or three other times in the trilogy. It's remarked upon
: : each time -- the hobbits notice what a change has come over
: : Aragorn, how different he appears: No longer a dirty ranger in
: : the wilderness, but a noble lord of men. Does that not satisfy
: : all your requirements?

: "in the guise of the heir of Isildur" means nothing to me. I know that Aragorn reveald himself as the Heir of Isildur (showing the Sword Reforged would help in that respect), but what does an Heir of Isildur look like?

Well, that's a good question. Maybe like this:

(FR p. 409, two pages before the end of "The Great River"):

"Frodo turned and saw Strider, and yet not Strider; for the weatherworn Ranger was no longer there. In the stern sat Aragorn son of Arathorn, proud and erect, guiding the boat with skilful strokes; his hood was cast back, and his dark hair was blowing in the wind, a light wasin his eyes: a king returning from exile to his own land."

'I think that that fits with the passage in "The Grey Company" fairly well -- right after the "he saw me, but in other guise than you see me here" line he says, "To know that I lived and walked the earth was a blow to his heart, I deem; for he knew it not till now...Sauron has not forgotten Isildur and the sword of Elendil. Now in the very hour of his great designs the heir of Isildur and the Sword are revealed...'

Maybe this does not explain the claim about showing himself in a different guise. But "the heir of Isildur" is what Aragorn himself says.

I'm interested in the Thorongil idea. But if there is a question about what "the heir of Isildur" looks like (other than like Aragorn), what does Thorongil look like (other than a much younger Aragorn)?

And is it really true that Sauron could only track Aragorn's movements with the palantir if he had already seen him? I don't doubt you, necessarily, but I can't find a passage that says this.