: I agree that we can reasonably presume that Sauron was not
: searching around the Gladden Fields before this time. That,
: however, doesn't seem to me to show that he was not trying to
: find out where the ring was long before this, and simply had
: not found out yet about Isildur's end.

The first indication of Sauron's search for the Ring comes in 2850, when Gandalf visits Dol Guldur the second time. He had access to Mordor after 1636 but would not have found it there. It seems doubtful that if he was searching for the Ring circa 1640 he would have paused for a period of maybe 1000 years, but there is nowhere else to look. Inside Arnor or Gondor, the Ring would have corrupted the kings.

: : It would be out of character for Sauron to expect anyone to
: : want to destroy the Ring, but he probably never expected to
: : be overcome in the Second Age. His opinions of what happened
: : after the final combat on Orodruin could have been influenced
: : by the fact that there was no new master of the Ring in the
: : Third Age. It had simply vanished from all knowledge.

: Well, I suppose that makes sense. But again, (barring other
: evidence) his conviction that the ring would have been
: destroyed would have to have been enough that he would not even
: consider the possibility that the ring still existed -- not
: just enough to make him think that _maybe_ it happened. Seems
: still insufficient.

He should have been in great doubt for a long time. Remember, Sauron retreated in 2063 rather than be found out by the White Council. He was much stronger when they finally attempted to drive him out in 2941. As his strength increased, he probably began to doubt his original conclusion that the Ring had been destroyed, but he had no idea of where to look for it if it still existed. Certainly nothing that was happening in Arnor and Gondor should have led him to believe the Ring was there.

: The two matters that you and Rob Roy have brought up that I'm
: now considering are (1) that Sauron might have been fooled by
: the fact that another dark lord had not arisen, and (2) that
: perhaps Gandalf learned of Sauron's suspicion that the ring had
: been destroyed from Gollum.

Or he could have learned about a change in Sauron's plans while he was exploring Dol Guldur the second time. Gandalf did somehow learn that Sauron was gathering back ALL the Rings of Power. He must have overheard a conversation between Sauron and a very trusted lieutenant, or else found a way to investigate Sauron's personal treasury (assuming the Rings were being placed in some sort of vault) to discover this fact.

: : "in the guise of the heir of Isildur" means nothing to me. I
: : know that Aragorn reveald himself as the Heir of Isildur
: : (showing the Sword Reforged would help in that respect), but
: : what does an Heir of Isildur look like?

: Well, that's a good question. Maybe like this:

: (FR p. 409, two pages before the end of "The Great River"):

: "Frodo turned and saw Strider, and yet not Strider; for the
: weatherworn Ranger was no longer there. In the stern sat
: Aragorn son of Arathorn, proud and erect, guiding the boat with
: skilful strokes; his hood was cast back, and his dark hair was
: blowing in the wind, a light wasin his eyes: a king returning
: from exile to his own land."

[snip]

That's insufficient. If Aragorn had shown himself as he appeared to Frodo, Sauron would have been able to look for in the captured Palantir after Aragorn broke off contact. He had to physically appear different and all that he had really accumulated between the passing of the Argonath and the use of the Palantir was the armor from Theoden.

An Heir of Isildur doesn't look a certain way. They don't metamorphose physically and alter their appearance. Aragorn had to have shown Sauron what he looked like at some point in time, such that he would be unrecognizable to Sauron in the present day, but still threatening enough to give Sauron reason to believe he had taken up the Ring, or was about to.

Thorongil matches this requirement.

: I'm interested in the Thorongil idea. But if there is a
: question about what "the heir of Isildur" looks like (other
: than like Aragorn), what does Thorongil look like (other than a
: much younger Aragorn)?

He would not only have been younger, he would have been arrayed as a soldier of Gondor, perhaps standing under a Gondorian banner. Remember, the first major assault was directed at Gondor as planned, but it was rushed in part because Aragorn revealed himself to Sauron. If Aragorn showed Sauron an image of Thorongil, captain of Gondor, and implied that he had the Ring (or at least gave Sauron reason to infer he had the Ring), then Sauron had all the more reason to crush Gondor as quickly as possible. He couldn't afford to let a successful captain rouse Gondor from its lethargy.

: And is it really true that Sauron could only track Aragorn's
: movements with the palantir if he had already seen him? I don't
: doubt you, necessarily, but I can't find a passage that says
: this.

I'm no more an authority on the Palantiri than anyone else who has UNFINISHED TALES. Denethor was able to see things from far away as they happened, or perhaps to look back in time. Aragorn also used the Palantir to look at events unfolding far away (and hence he learned about the fleets threatening Gondor). Every passage I've looked at indicates that visual imagery was very important. Even Pippin's exchange included visual imagery. Sauron "saw" Pippin, and Pippin saw Sauron.
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