: This meanders a bit at the start, but persevere and it'll make sense...

: Ok - In T.A.1944 the Wainriders attacked Gondor ( at the same time as Harad did in the south). Gondor split it's army into two.. The Northern one being the larger. An estimate for it's size? I put it at Approx. 12,000 for the North (as it says that it was the larger - that's Cirion and Eorl, Unfinished Tales)and (,000 for the Southern Army.
: Why? Well, in the Last Debate (LOTR), Prince Imrahil Says:
: "We should ride with seven thousands, scarce as many as the Vanguard of it's army in the days of it's power"

: Most army were divided into three 'Battles', with the vanguard forming the lead. The vanguard was usually the smallest part as well, so a figure of 21,000 troops for Gondors field army may be a bit conservative. Don't forget this is still at the time of the Kings, when the realm was still large.
: Right - In the battle of the Wainriders, the King ( can't remember his name! Didn't write it down!) is killed along with part of the centre of the Army.The left and right flanks were retreated ( I don't think they had had time to come into contact with the enemy) and formed up in Ithilien behind a regard, which collapsed eventually and went to find the remainder of the Army. assuming that the Army was divided roughly equally into three, this puts the losses at a maximum of 4,000 troops, i.e the whole of the centre.
: The southern Army we are told won a great victory in the south and then came and joined the rest of gondors army ( presumably the northern part) and won the battle of the camp, routing the Wainriders.
: Assuming that losses were not as heavy for the southern army, as they were victorious, say approx 1000-2000 men, this puts Gondors field army at the end of 1944 at roughly 16,000 men, at the least.Don't forget Minas Tirith, the Undeeps, The Hornburg, Orthanc were all still manned, as well as Minas Ithil, Pelagir etc..All this is from Cirion and Eorl,Unfinished Tales, by the way.
: So... 30 yrs later, time enough for new people to be born, losses to be made good etc, the end of the North Kingdom in 1975.
: Earnill 2 sends an army to the North...
: "An army of power, with munitions and provision for a war of great kings - or so it seemed to the people of the North, though this was but a small sending force of the whole might of Gondor" - From Appendix A.
: This implies large military forces,and makes my figure of a 16,000 strong standing army seem inadequate. But there's more...
: 25 yrs later, the Nazgul besiege Minas Ithil. 25 yrs of relative peace for Gondor, Time enough to recover from the war in the North.
: So gondor, with a minimum army of 16,000, at the minimum, led by a General with good reason to fight the Witch King ( as His horse bore him away in the battle for the North Kingdom), couldn't find itself able to raise a siege from an important fortress where the Palantir, a vital communicating tool, is kept?
: People have previously said that despair would have been used, but surely the Palantir could have been used to keep the defenders abreast of the situation? Show them that a relief force was on the way?
: Since there was a palantir there, would not a large Garrison be present to defend it? Minas Ithil is descibed as a Fortress, which puts it in the same vain as Orthanc,Hornburg, even Minas Tirith.
: So the question remains...
: How the Hell did the Nazgul defeat Gondors entire army ( of at LEAST 16,000,and very likely a lot more) and take as strong a citadel as Minas Ithil?

: WELL???????

: :)

We do not know how much of the population was affected by the twin invasions defeated by Earnil. The recruiting base of Gondor may have been affected, so the ability to raise new troops could have been diminished. Though I agree that the army would have been considerable. I would imagine that if the van was around 10,000 strong then the totals for the professional army would have been around 40,000. At the time of the Ring War Gondor seems to have had somewhere around 10,000 full time troops plus perhaps a thousand similar troops from Dol Amroth, plus probably 30,000+ semi-professional troops which could be raised in an emergency. If the ratios were equal (a big assumption) then in Earnil's time Gondor should have been able to dispose of some 160,000 armed men. Obviously this number could not be concentrated in one area for a campaign, but Earnur should have been able to get 60,000 troops together to relieve Minas Ithil. However, the semi-professional troops may have been brought into existence under the Stewards to cope with the loss of population and tax revenue of Gondor in later years. If this were the case then Earnur might have found difficulty in concentrating more than 20,000 men to repulse the Nazgul (though one assumes that these would have all been first-class troops).

How could the army of the Nazgul have taken Minas Ithil? Well their first assault would have had the advantage of surprise. Once inside the Morgul Vale in force they would have been difficult to dislodge. All the evidence points to Sauron's forces being very adept at seige-works, and orcs were used to tunneling and spade-work. In the time (weeks - a month?) it would have taken for Earnur to assemble a viable army the enemy could have raised circumvallation earthworks and pallisades, trenches and saps, and have been able to fortify the approaches to the city up the Vale (see the description of Frodo and Sam's struggle up the Vale, and how easy it would have been to defend). Once in place the Nazgul's army would have been as difficult to assault as WWI trench defences on the Western Front. No doubt the Gondorian army made the attempt, but once repulsed Earnur would have been faced with a dilemma, even if he reached the city his army might have been decimated, in which case he would have had little choice other than to evacuate the city as being no longer defensible. In this scenario he would have achieved nothing other than sparing the lives of the citizens and garrison , but have destroyed the army of Gondor and left the state open to assault from Rhun or Harad in the process. Earnur may have decided that the only reasonable course to take would be to raise counter defences at the mouth of Morgul Vale and hope that these could act as a stopper to keep the Nazgul bottled up in Minas Ithil. The long-term future of Minas Ithil, even if relieved, in the face of an actively hostile power in control of Gorgoroth may have appeared bleak.