: I would guess closer to 50,000,000. But Tolkien probably never extended it that far.

: : : Guesstimates I would say are (at WotR)
: : : Rohan - 400,000
: : : Dunland - 300,000
: : : Eriador incl. Shire - 500,000
: : : Gondor - 5,000,000

: Gondorian population estimates still give me a headache! :)

: : : Lindon/Grey Havens - 20,000
: : : Rivendell - 1,000
: : : Anduin Vales (northmen/beornings) - 50,000

: I think this is too low.

: : : Woodmen - 20,000

: I think this is way too low.

: : : Mirkwood Elves - 50,000
: : : Lorien - 25,000

: I think this is too low as far as Thranduil's kingdom goes. It may be a little too high for Lorien.

: : : Dale/Esgaroth - 250,000
: : : Dwarves (Durins Tribe) - 100,000

: I think this is way to high. I would guestimate closer to 20,000 or thereabouts. Durin's Folk had suffered more than any other Dwarven kindred. And a LOT of them had died when the Balrog destroyed their civilization, when Smaug destroyed Erebor, in the Battle of Azanulbizar, etc.

: : You also don't give figures for Orc populations, except those
: : lumped in for Mordor. Maybe 2-3 million at most for the "free
: : bands" of the Misty/Grey Mountains.

: I think that's way too high.

: : Tolkien liked to use such terms as "hosts" and "companies" to
: : describe the populations of peoples: he didn't have our modern
: : thing for precise numbering. But I wonder how imprecise he
: : really was. Hosts and companies are traditional terms. There
: : probably was a range of numbers for a host during the times
: : that term was in use to describe organized (more or less)
: : groups of warriors. Tolkien, always careful in his use of
: : words, wouldn't grossly violate such a range, and from that we
: : can get an idea of how amny elves were in the hosts of the
: : first age and so forth.

: "Host" is a word often found in Biblical translations from the KJV era onward, but it's not often used much any more (except maybe in Tolkien-inspired fantasy literature). It comes from Middle Latin, so I don't know if the root word was used in the Vulgate. It generally is used to mean "an army" or "a multitude". I've never seen any source which tried to assign a range of numbers to it.

: It's important to keep in mind that Tolkien described the rise and fall of several civilizations in the history of Middle-earth. Each civilization would support a larger popuation at its peak than in its decline (or larger than would survive the destruction of the civilization).

: Beleriand had a huge population of Elves. The Edain were numbered in the thousands (2,000 Beorian men and their families, 2,000 Haladinic men and their families, 6,000 Marachian men and their families) but the Elves probably numbered in the hundreds of thousands before Morgoth destroyed their kingdoms. It's not even unreasonable to guess that the Elves might have numbered in the millions, except that I don't believe the Edain could have increased their numbers enough 140 years to produce the kind of significant percentage of warriors they seem to have contributed to the Elvish armies.

: Estolad started out with something like 8,000 families. Say there were 40-50,000 people there before the Edain started migrating across Beleriand. Their migrations lasted about 60 years, I think (that's a tougher one to look up). So you have to figure about two generations were born and grew up in Beleriand before the Elven realms began to assign fiefs (or whatever) to the Edain. Let's say there were 100,000 Edain around the year FA 376. I think that's about when the Haladin were ruined by the Orcs.

: If we guess that 1/5 of the Haladin survived, then Haleth probably led about 4,000 people to Brethil. Three generations later they might have numbered between 12 and 16,000 people. The Beorians would have numbered maybe 75,000 at the beginning of the Dagor Bragollach (FA 455). How many of them survived? Don't know. Let's say 1/3 of the population was lost. Most of the remaining 50,000 would have fled to Hithlum. Maybe 1,000 at most stayed with Barahir, and perhaps far fewer than that. He had more than 12 men with him when he began his slow retreat, but he ended up with barely a dozen outlaws when the whole deal was over, and of those only Beren survived.

: The Marachians may have numbered as many as 200,000 by the time of the Dagor Bragollach. A generation later they may have numbered 260,000 or thereabouts, plus another 70,000 or so Beorians. So Hurin was probably lord of more than 300,000 Edain at the time he led their army off to the Nirnaeth Arnoediad. He must have had 40-50,000 men under his command.

: The Haladin, having been slightly reinforced by Emeldir's Beorians, might have had a population close to 20,000 at the time. Let's say they had about 18,000 people. So they could haev fielded an army of about 3,000 men. I think it's safe to say that Hurin probably commanded 50,000 warriors of the Marachians, Beorians, and Haladin in the Nirnaeth Arnoediad. That's a very significant force.

: Of course, Turgon only brought 10,000 soldiers to the battle. We have no numbers for the Elves, but I would guess that Fingon led between 50,000 and 100,000 Elven warriors. Maedhros probably had half as many Elven warriors. Let's say between the two of them they had about 100,000 soldiers. Cirdan may have had another 10-20,000 from the Falas.

: Orodreth's realm sent only Gwindor's company of perhaps a few hundred warriors. But Nargothrond had already suffered serious casualties in the Dagor Bragollach (as had Hithlum, which lost a significant cavalry force in the first onslought, and the March of Maedhros). Still, Finrod had at one time been ruler of the largest Elven realm in Beleriand. Nargothrond must have been able to field over 100,000 warriors.

: Note that I'm not assuming every male Elf would have gone to war, or that Fingon would have completely stripped Hithlum of soldiers. I'm sure he left some forces behind to watch against attacks from the rear, which had been attempted before.

: Doriath may have had between 50,000 and 100,000 soldiers as well. And my numbers may all be low estimates. I think there were substantial Elven populations before the great decline began in the Nirnaeth. After the destruction of Hithlum and the March of Maedhros the Falas was lost pretty quickly. Cirdan somehow retreated from the battle with a lot of Noldor but he didn't have sufficient troops to withstand Morgoth;s onslought.

: Nargothrond, on the other hand, was able to control its theater until Glaurung entered the war. So I think Orodreth had a LOT of Elves at his command, both Noldor and Sindar. And Nargothrond had been reinforced by some of the Feanorians after the Dagor Bragollach.

: There were most likely thousands of Elves who survived the fall of Nargothrond simply because they didn't live in the city itself. They probably lived in small communities throughout the realm and were able to escape because Glaurung went straight for Nargothrond and took it.

: What you end up with is a substantial population on the Isle of Balar, and then you probably get a few thousand Elves in Arvernien before it's destroyed, and then some of those Elves survive to reach Balar.

: So, let's say that Gil-galad had 50,000 Elves on Balar at the end of the First Age. The Feanorians may have had as few as 1,000 Elves left to them by that time (if any still remained loyal to them -- even Celebrimbor was by this time on Balar with Gil-galad and Cirdan). There were Green-elves in Ossiriand. Tolkien doesn't say what happened to them, but somehow I think they were either among those Elves who sailed over Sea or became the bulk of the surviving Sindar who stayed in Middle-earth.

: Anyway, let's assume that a couple hundred thousand Elves were thralls in Angband. Maybe another few thousand were still wandering around Beleriand as outcasts. Most of these must also have sailed over Sea at the end of the First Age.

: So Gil-galad may have started out with only 30-40,000 Elves in Lindon. If Forlond and Harlond were really cities, along with the twin cities of Mithlond, the Elvish populations must have been spread pretty thin for a while. But in 500 years (which I think is about when most people guess the Sindar started their migrations to the east) the Elvish population could have risen to several hundred thousand again (but probably never became anything like the huge population Beleriand must have had at one time).

: I would guess that by the time of the War of the Elves and Sauron, there were probably 500,000 Elves living throughout Eriador and Lindon, mostly in Lindon and Eregion. Maybe half of these were lost in the war (casualties, or through departures over Sea). Gil-galad's power and influence seem to have declined considerably, and I think a severe reduction in Elvish population is warranted.

: Nonetheless, perhaps by the end of the Second Age, Gil-galad had 1,000,000 Elves in his kingdom and associated regions. Of those, he might have been able to lead 300-400,000 soldiers to war (but that might still be way too high a figure -- I'm not convinced every male elf fought -- at leats not all at the same time).

: After the war, many of the Elves were dead, and many others seem to have departed. I would guess that Gil-galad's people were eventually reduced to about 1/3 their prewar population. But though they would continue to have children, the Third Age seems to be marked with a lot of departures, perhaps more than one wave of them. They were still able to field armies up until the final war against Angmar, but after that neither Cirdan nor Elrond send out any armies (although none were really needed).

: So, if Cirdan and Elrond were lords over 300,000 Elves at the beginning of the Third Age, they may have retained only 10% of that population by the end of the age. Lorien might have had maybe 15-20,000 Elves. If Minas Tirith, as we have speculated in the past, had more than 50,000 people in it (I believe this is the lowest estimate put forth), then Tolkien's statement about there being more people in Minas Tirith and its supporting lands who spoke Sindarin than in the three Elven realms combined would still hold true.

I do like your estimates, although of course we simply don`t and can`t know how many people lived thousands of miles to the east and south, across what is now Africa and Asia. Under Sauron`s hegemony they could have grown in numbers and become quite strong, as their ancestors did in the second age, and as Numenor did under Sauron`s influence. The only reason why so much of the west was sparsely inhabited was Sauron`s influence.

One thing that surprised me from what you say, is how quickly Elvish populations seem to be able to recover their numbers. We only know much about the greatest and most powerful of the elves, aho may not be typical, but, well, Elrond for example waited thousands of years to marry Celebrian, and then only had one child. Some had several children, but given that they lived millenia, I`m sure that they would have been spaced out. How could Gil-Galad`s subjects in Lindon grow tenfold in numbers in a few hundred years?

The population of Umbar and that whole coast may have been much higher than the original suggestion, rather like the levantine coast, and that of much of north Africa in classical times, both of which contained several millions at their peak. The fleets (and armies) of the corsairs could threaten Gondor in several places at the same time. Umbar`s peak though was probably much earlier, when the city was the greatest Numenorean port in Middle Earth, and in the first half of the third age. It would have suffered much worse than Gondor from the plague, which allowed its temporary recapture.

Another thing that puzzles me is the question of the orcs. Morgoth`s orcs. Frodo and Sam are very puzzled at the logistics of Sauron`s empire - how did he feed and supply his enormous armies? They knew nothing of the great slave worked fields to the south around the dark sad waters of Lake Nurnen, and of the roads to the east that brought tribute and plunder. Sauron`s empire had tentacles that reached far to the south and east, so his armies could concentrate with overwhelming force on the borders of Gondor.

Not so Morgoth`s. He had some power in Eriador, but we know of no slave worked fields. His own realm in the north was bitterly cold. If the elves of Beleriand could field hundreds of thousands of soldiers, then Morgoth must have had at least as many orcs - more, as orcs individually were no match for elves, at least for the ones that had the light of the trees in their eyes. And there were all the elvish thralls to feed as well. I suspect there were millions in Angband, and am totally at a loss to know how Morgoth fed them - especially during the siege.

Of course, this is partly a mythological era, and how agricultural economy could work before the rising of the sun we can never know. History does imply a workable economy, but mythology doesn`t, I suppose. If Tolkien had had time to rewrite the Silmarillion, maybe there would have been an explanation.