The White Council

Re: Estimation of Population in Gondor and Minas Tirith

Tolkien and Inklings Discussion

: : : Byzantium/Constantinople, however, was situated in a : : : different position from Minas Tirith. A lot of traffic : : : passed through the city in four directions. The region was a : : : major crossroads. Minas Tirith was not a major crossroads. : : : It was reduced to little more than a border fortress in the : : : last centuries of the Third Age.

: : : For the significance of this point, see below.

: : But this argues for an even smaller size (relative to : : Constantinople) than even I have given it.

: You cannot relate Minas Tirith to Constantinople in that way, however. It serves as a model for testing the formula you propose we use, but that formula argues for a greater size than you attribute to the city.

: I'm not trying to argue with the formula, but to use it.

I put forward reasons why I did not think the formula was reliable when related to capital population size and local force numbers. Though I would defend its relative usfulness as regards total population size relative to total army numbers. As you say if applied the 10%, extrapolated from Late Roman and Byzantine capital population to locally stationed troops, would give c. 100,000 people for Minas T. But I would not use that method here.

: : MT had some "Nodal point" characteristics it was the only point : : to cross from north to south of the White Mountains to the west : : of the great river Anduin....

: Huh? Minas Tirith was situated at the end of the White Mountains, and Anduin could be crossed at Cair Andros and Pelargir. But one had to go to Osgiliath to cross the river near Minas Tirith, or use a boat or ship to get across the river from the Harlond (as apparently was done at Pelargir).

If you were north of the mountains and wanted to get to the south of them and were not Aragorn, then you would have to pass through Minas T that is my point. Pelargir would be a ferry point not a really feasible crossing point for an army without a strong naval contingent.

: :...It was also, apparently, the lowest crossing point for the : : river (Sauron's armies seem to have at east in part waded : : across as the bridge was ruined), and because of this it was : : also therefore the highest point navigable by sea-going ships : : (Harlond).

: Actually, Tolkien writes that "all the workers and craftsmen that could be spared" had been sent ahead of Aragorn's army to strengthen "the ferries and boat-bridges that the enemy had made and in part destroyed when they fled" at Osgiliath. I don't see any indication that they waded across the river, which was so deep in this area that sea-capable ships could harbor there. Ships were used to ferry people south from Cair Andros for Aragorn's coronation.

I had underestimated Sauron's engineers. Though the position of the former bridge at Osgiliath (bridges until recently, were built only where shallows enabled arch foundations to be secured) argues that sea going ships could not pass beyond. This would not apply to small-craft, ferries and barge-type vessels of shallower draught. But it would be a strong incentive for the positioning of both Osgiliath and Minas T, at both the lowest useful bridging point and the highest navigation point for deep hulled vessels.

: We aren't told if these workers and craftsmen are serving as soldiers. It would be useful to know more about them.

: : : 7,000 would be too few, however. Again, you're not allowing : : : for previous losses. The reinforcements from the fiefs : : : amounted to maybe 2,700 men. Minas Tirith probably had over : : : 10,000 soldiers before the war started. That would put the : : : city's population (by this methodology) at around 100,000. : : : The population should not suddenly decline correspondingly : : : to the loss of troops in war.

: : I would have said maybe 7,000 in normal times but higher in : : times of imminent threat.

: But we don't know that. In fact, we still don't even know how large Denethor's army was at its greatest size.

: : : And I doubt all of Minas Tirith's soldiers were "elite" : : : units. Minas Tirith was just not geographically important : : : enough to warrant having only "best" troops as its garrison. : : : The Corsairs were often a problem along the coasts.

: : As in my geographical argument above - MT is the southernmost : : point of attack by land forces (Cair Andros was obviosly a more : : northerly route) from the east. It is also a choke point for : : movements in a north-south direction. Taken together these : : characteristics, plus its psychological importance as the : : capital would make MT of vital strategic importance...

: With respect to the movement of enemy forces, yes, but not economically as Constantinople was economically important. The strategic value of Minas Tirith is therefore considerably less.

Not the same scale of trade as was found at Constantinople though any trade between Anorien and the rest of Gondor would have to pass through Minas T. This would also apply to trade with Rohan, and any possible long distance trade with the upper Anduin and the Dwarves (even at second or third hand). The Elves of N. Mirkwood and the Dorwinrim (?) seem to have managed long distance trade even in the unsettled times of the late Third Age.

: :...Certainly the southern coasts were also important though one : : might imagine that their defence would be most effectively : : undertaken by a naval force with land forces to back them up. : : Unfortunately we are told nothing of any Gondorian naval : : abilities at the time of the Ring War.

: Insufficient to meet the Corsairs at sea, or in the wrong place to stop them. Gondor clearly did not rule the seas at this time.

Though a local attempt at defence on the water might have been possible close to Pelargir, given modest resources; "men spared from the ships" are spoken of.

: : : But do these numbers take into consideration the supporting : : : lands? Typically, a medieval city would be surrouned by up : : : to 250 towns, villages, and smaller cities which would all : : : contribute to the economy and supply of the major city. I : : : don't have figures for the classical world but its estate : : : system should have reduced the number of supporting cities.

: : As I said I rathr doubt the validity of capital city population : : to locally stationed troop numbers, and arrived at my 73,000 : : figure for MT by different means. However, when looking at the : : Tagmata and praesental armies I was surprised that the ratio : : seemed to hold fairly well in the two cases I looked at. I am : : much more happy about the cause and effect relationship between : : overall population size and overall army size.

: 73,000 is still way too few by the methology you propose. Minas Tirith's population had to be in excess of 100,000, as I stated previously.

My method varied in this case, because it was unreliable in the face of unknown circumstances (eg. transport of provisions by water). These unkowns have less effect in regard to total population related to total army size. I then used the relative size of capital city population to total population (Constantinople/Byz. Emp.) to extrapolate a figure for Minas T. Until the modern era this ratio would be more or less stable. It is only in the last two centuries that modern manufacturing has allowed the growth of capital cities out of proportion to the overall population of the state. The situation in the Irish Republic where a full third of the country's population live in Greater Dublin would have been impossible in the pre-industrial past.

: : : The population of a city is thus only a fraction of the : : : people in the region who would support the local troops. : : : Hence, the 100,000 mark still applies only to the people : : : living within Minas Tirith itself, and not necessarily to the : : : peoples living in the lands around the city.

: : Given the known expense of land transport in the pre-modern era : : a large military force in the area of MT would be relatively : : easily supplied. The apparently rich lands of Anorien (why did : : Tolkien not show even a single settlement in Anorien?) could : : move rations down by river using small-craft, and ships could : : bring produce in from as far away as Pelargir or even Anfalas.

: We see very little of Anorien.

My argument was, that, because of the navigable river, a force of soldiers disproportionately large compared to the immediate population could have been quite easily maintained close to Minas T. Low cost bulk transport by water could have called on the resources of a very large area of Gondor.