The White Council

here's the direct answer, then

Tolkien and Inklings Discussion

: : Fair enough. But I have given you several reasons why he would think the ring MAYBE hadn't been destroyed (again, all I need is "maybe"...you are the one who needs "definitely"): The continued existence of the ringwraiths, Sauron's own continued existence, the fact that Barad-dur wasn't destroyed (though it was made with the one ring, and its foundation will stand so long as the one ring does), the fact that we are told elsewhere that Sauron would assume that someone getting his ring would surely take it and keep it...that's more than enough. Surely this is sufficient evidence to keep Sauron from _assuming_ that his ring had been destroyed (even though he has no proof of that fact).

: Then let's reverse this a little. While in reality there are infinite possiblities, and certainly no certainties (except for that!) and if Sauron did believe the Ring extant, then why didn't he go after it?

OK, I agree that this is the key point.

I apologize if my saying "nonsense" offended you. I didn't mean to disparage, and I must say that I very much respect many of the arguments you have made.

But I have to say that I consider all of the arguments (made by you and others) to the effect that (1) Sauron would have assumed that someone gaining his ring would have destroyed it (2) That he would not instead have feared the coming to be of a new dark lord, and (3) That he would have been so confident, in spite of considerable countervailing evidence (again, Barad-dur, the ringwraiths, himself), that the ring had been destroyed that he would not even consider the possibility that it still existed...well, if "nonsense" bothers you, I will say "implausible."

A point I still don't think you have appreciated is that I am not saying that he clearly held the _opposite_ view, namely that the ring DID still exist. I am only claiming that he should have held that open as a possibility. I would think you could see how that leaves me with less burden of proof. This possibility allows Sauron to be uncertain about what happened to the ring, which seems far and away the most plausible option.

But you're quite correct, this leads to the next issue, where I have to come up with a plausible answer:

:And, if he believed that it might cause his destruction, why didn't he go after it? Even if he only thought it as the merest chance within a hope as you keep pointing out, why didn't he go after it?

I agree completely -- so I have some explaining to do.

:What is your conclusion on the matter? Anyone can continually point out that there might have been an alternative, that there might have been something else going on, but I would appreciate if you would enlighten us all with your wisdom on the subject.

Just to keep track -- in pointing out this alternative, I am challenging Gandalf's claim to Frodo, which rejected all alternatives. It is not really my fault that if there is a reasonable alternative, then Gandalf's statement was too strong.

:If you are not willing to buy into what up till now, from multipel sources have been convincing arguments (and kindly refrain from calling my arguments nonsense, thanks) then tell us all what truly did happen in your mind.

Glad to. The question is whether Sauron may have suspected that the ring still existed long before the war of ring. Your claim to the contrary, as I understand it, is that if that were the case, he would have found it, or at least gone after it, much earlier than he 2850.

You're quite right. The problem is that we do not know that it was only shortly before 2850 that he began looking for the ring. Your proof that he didn't in an earlier post was that if he HAD looked, he certainly would have found it. But I disagree -- he had no sources to go on (if you can provide convincing evidence to the contrary, then I will concede both this point and the whole argument). The orcs who killed Isildur were dead by 1000 T.A., and even those that were there would not have known who they had killed or what he held.

The natural assumption for Sauron, it seems to me, is that either the elves or the descendants of the Numenoreans held the ring, or had lost it. At least this should have occured to him as a possibility, and a dreadfully fearful one at that. He would want to get the ring back, if it did exist...but even after he re-formed he was long weak...far too weak to openly assail his enemies looking for the ring...especially since he did not know where it was hidden. His hope may have been that as he increased in power, the ring would make itself known, in its attempt to return to him.

Is this implausible? Explain to me how it is, and if you convince me, I'll concede (in fact, I'll make a public statement apologizing for propogating "nonsense"). But this makes more sense to me than that Sauron simply gave up on the ring with NO proof of its destruction (and considerable indication to the contrary).