The White Council

Re: Sauron's ring, and Thorongil in the Palantir

Tolkien and Inklings Discussion

: :Gandalf knew -- because he knew the Ring existed -- that : : Barad-dur and the Nazgul were probably still around because : : the Ring was still around.

: I don't see how this makes sense. What about the ring's still : existing shows that if it were destroyed Barad-dur and the : ringwraiths would cease to exist? : Either this is guesswork on the part of Gandalf and Elrond : (which they do not suggest it is), or else Sauron should have : known it too. Guesswork, even when correct, does not change : that.

[snip]

Neither Gandalf nor Elrond knew precisely what would happen if the One Ring were unmade, beyond the irreparable weakening of Sauron. In "The Council of Elrond" Elrond could only guess that the Three would fail when the One was destroyed. Gandalf told Frodo in Bag End that he was making some guesses about things, but he was also instructing Frodo in a history that had taken years to construct. When Sauron first arose, no one knew for sure what had become of the Ring, and its history was slowly fading into a distant past. Sauron didn't have access to Mordor, so it's doubtful he would have known that the foundations of Barad-dur still existed.

All Sauron knew when he took shape again was that he didn't have the Ring and it was evidently not being used among the Elves or Dunedain. Who else should have it? Gandalf was convinced that Sauron believed for a time that the One Ring had been destroyed. How long? We don't know. I would agree that he probably began to suspect that was not so before Gandalf discovered the Necromaner's identity in 2850.

But the initial evidence of what had actually happened which Sauron had to consider was his own lengthy period of recovery (at least ten times as long as the time it took him to recover after the Downfall of Numenor, when he still had the Ring), his own great weakness, the absence of any new Ringlord, and the Nazgul's inactivity until his own recovery. There is really nothing there to lead anyone to believe the should might still exist.

Now, consider that Sauron MAY have believed when he first took shape again that the Ring had been destroyed. Laboring under that belief for possibly centuries, he may have done nothing to acquire information which would lead him to believe the Ring had not been destroyed.

But I propose he had an excellent opportunity to learn the truth when the Lord of the Nazgul destroyed Arnor. Angmar's army took possession of Fornost Erain, which must have contained many ancient records, including accounts of the war by men who had returned with the main army of Arnor and perhaps some notes from Valandil (Isildur's Heirs, after all, KNEW about the Ring, and waited for it to emerge).

Hence, in 1974 or soon thereafter, Sauron could have learned that Isildur took the Ring. Now, up until then his strategy had been simply to weaken the Dunadan realms, and he had destroyed Arnor. His servants took control over Mordor in 1636 after Gondor withdrew its garrisons. The existence of Barad-dur's foundations might have made Sauron wonder, but he didn't really do anything about Mordor. Presumably he colonized it with Men and Orcs and waited for their numbers to increase.

Now, suddenly, in 2000, the Nazgul issue from Mordor with a large army and lay siege to Minas Ithil. After taking the city they don't really do anything. Why? Maybe Sauron hoped to find the Ring in Minas Ithil, or some news of it. That had, after all, been Isildur's own city. Disappointed in this venture, he may have felt (when Gandalf entered Dol Guldur for the first time) that he needed time to gather more news and to grow stronger. But by now he may have been convinced the Ring still existed.

So he bided his time for 400 years, and when he returned to Mirkwood in 2460 he began working to find the Ring. This may be when the Ring could first respond to Sauron's malice, if only weakly, and when Deagol found it the Ring induced Smeagol to murder him for it. But then Smeagol took an unexpected turn, and when he was finally driven out by his people he fled to the Misty Mountains, farther away from Sauron rather than closer to him, and whatever low-level communication there may have been subsided until such time as Sauron became stronger. That would have occurred nearly 500 years later when Bilbo came traipsing along.

: : Tolkien doesn't say Aragorn changed clothes. Neither does he : : say that Aragorn appeared to Sauron "as the Heir of Isildur". : : Aragorn's words are:

: Nor does he say that he showed him any visions from the past.

Aragorn could not have shown Sauron a vision of the future. He could only reveal what was or had been.

: And are you sure that this passage does not say that Sauron saw : Aragorn as the heir of Isildur? Seems to me that that is : exactly what the passage you cite states.

What, exactly, does "the heir of Isildur" look like? How could Aragorn reveal himself in "other guise" without showing SOMETHING to Sauron?

You keep suggesting Aragorn would have shown himself as the heir of Isildur, but what do you think Sauron would have seen? What are YOU envisioning? Superman standing in front of the American Flag (I'm referring to the old George Reeves series, where the opening credits showed an idealized Superman posing)?

Aragorn was trying to keep his present "guise" secret from Sauron. I doubt he revealed the way he appeared at the time he looked into the palantir.

: : It is possible that Thorongil is a bad guess, since he was : : merely a captain among the Dunedain, and not known as an Heir : : of Isildur. In that case, Aragorn would have to have : : revealed himself as a lord among the Dunedain of the North.

: And how would he do this...other than revealing himself as : Aragorn?

See below.

: : I suppose the question comes down to whether he could : : construct an image of himself which represented what he was : : or whether he had to show Sauron something real. I : : don't believe the Palantiri could be used artistically. : : Perhaps Aragorn recalled for Sauron the day Elrond told him : : his true heritage, showing him the Sword that was Broken and : : the Ring of Barahir, and possibly also the Sceptre of : : Annuminas and the Star of the North (Tolkien doesn't say : : Elrond didn't reveal these to Aragorn -- only that he : : withheld). Such emblems of royalty should be unmistakable.

: The need for all such speculations stem from your conviction : that Aragorn could not have afforded to appear to Sauron as : himself. But I remain unconvinced of this claim (I'm not _sure_ : it's wrong, but I haven't seen any proof yet).

My conviction is based on the fact that Aragorn says he appeared in "other guise". "Other" is used to imply "not this". Aragorn was saying, "[I did not appear to him as you see me now,] but in other guise than you see me here".

: What might make some difference is _where_ he thought Aragorn : was. And on that issue we have no strong evidence from the : text.

He had two logical choices: Rohan or Minas Tirith. I suppose it depends on what Sauron learned of the war in Rohan as to whether he would have assumed Aragorn was in Gondor. But he seems to have felt Aragorn was enough of a threat he didn't want to wait for Aragorn to raise an army to take against HIM. Sauron knew how that could play out from bitter experience.