The White Council

my last post on these topics

Tolkien and Inklings Discussion

I'll plan on this being my last post on these topics, since I really don't have anything new to add.

: : :Gandalf knew -- because he knew the Ring existed -- that : : : Barad-dur and the Nazgul were probably still around because : : : the Ring was still around.

: : I don't see how this makes sense. What about the ring's still : : existing shows that if it were destroyed Barad-dur and the : : ringwraiths would cease to exist? : : Either this is guesswork on the part of Gandalf and Elrond : : (which they do not suggest it is), or else Sauron should have : : known it too. Guesswork, even when correct, does not change : : that.

: [snip]

: Neither Gandalf nor Elrond knew precisely what would happen if the One Ring were unmade, beyond the irreparable weakening of Sauron.

That would sound, then, like guesswork. But I submit to you that that is not the tone in which, say, Elrond says that while the ring endures, so shall the foundation of Barad-dur.

:In "The Council of Elrond" Elrond could only guess that the Three would fail when the One was destroyed.

Yes -- and here it is openly said (on more than one occassion) that no one _knows_ what will happen to the three. The fact that the same caution is not made concerning the foundation of Barad-dur is some indication that this is a matter of greater certainty.

:Gandalf told Frodo in Bag End that he was making some guesses about things, but he was also instructing Frodo in a history that had taken years to construct.

Fine. So he was making some guesses. I'm content with that.

:When Sauron first arose, no one knew for sure what had become of the Ring, and its history was slowly fading into a distant past. Sauron didn't have access to Mordor, so it's doubtful he would have known that the foundations of Barad-dur still existed.

Well, I'm not sure how in the world we would establish that he had no means (especially being based in the East as he was) of checking up on Mordor...certainly he did so at some point without Gondor's knowledge...who knows?

In any case, he knew Barad-dur's status _long_ before the war of the ring. By 2000 T.A. at the _very_ latest.

[snip]

: But the initial evidence of what had actually happened which Sauron had to consider was his own lengthy period of recovery (at least ten times as long as the time it took him to recover after the Downfall of Numenor, when he still had the Ring), his own great weakness, the absence of any new Ringlord, and the Nazgul's inactivity until his own recovery. There is really nothing there to lead anyone to believe the should might still exist.

Well, I'm sure you're tired of hearing me say this, so I won't do it again -- but you just don't go around _taking for granted_ that the One ring has been destroyed. You look for conclusive proof. It's _way_ too important to do otherwise. After all this talk from so many sources, I still can't make sense of anything else -- any suggestion that this is some "inexplicable slip" on Sauron's part just doesn't compute for me. Maybe that's my blind spot. So I think he needs to have more than just a reason to believe the ring _might_ have been destroyed. He needs some sort of overriding proof.

The fact that no one else seems to have mastered the ring by 1000 T.A. is part of this proof. But this and everything else, of course, is consistent with the ring's only being lost.

Maybe Sauron never thought of the possibility of the ring being lost (or owned but not mastered). I think that's one hell of a stretch...one easily remedied by changing a single sentence in the whole trilogy. But anyway...

: Now, consider that Sauron MAY have believed when he first took shape again that the Ring had been destroyed. Laboring under that belief for possibly centuries, he may have done nothing to acquire information which would lead him to believe the Ring had not been destroyed.

: But I propose he had an excellent opportunity to learn the truth when the Lord of the Nazgul destroyed Arnor. Angmar's army took possession of Fornost Erain, which must have contained many ancient records, including accounts of the war by men who had returned with the main army of Arnor and perhaps some notes from Valandil (Isildur's Heirs, after all, KNEW about the Ring, and waited for it to emerge).

Very interesting theory. Of course, it, too, is consistent with Sauron's simply not having known where to look for the ring (in which case he may have been attacking Arnor in part because that's where Isildur had reigned).

: Hence, in 1974 or soon thereafter, Sauron could have learned that Isildur took the Ring. Now, up until then his strategy had been simply to weaken the Dunadan realms, and he had destroyed Arnor. His servants took control over Mordor in 1636 after Gondor withdrew its garrisons. The existence of Barad-dur's foundations might have made Sauron wonder, but he didn't really do anything about Mordor. Presumably he colonized it with Men and Orcs and waited for their numbers to increase.

: Now, suddenly, in 2000, the Nazgul issue from Mordor with a large army and lay siege to Minas Ithil. After taking the city they don't really do anything. Why? Maybe Sauron hoped to find the Ring in Minas Ithil, or some news of it. That had, after all, been Isildur's own city. Disappointed in this venture, he may have felt (when Gandalf entered Dol Guldur for the first time) that he needed time to gather more news and to grow stronger. But by now he may have been convinced the Ring still existed.

: So he bided his time for 400 years, and when he returned to Mirkwood in 2460 he began working to find the Ring. This may be when the Ring could first respond to Sauron's malice, if only weakly, and when Deagol found it the Ring induced Smeagol to murder him for it. But then Smeagol took an unexpected turn, and when he was finally driven out by his people he fled to the Misty Mountains, farther away from Sauron rather than closer to him, and whatever low-level communication there may have been subsided until such time as Sauron became stronger. That would have occurred nearly 500 years later when Bilbo came traipsing along.

Really very interesting. I'll think it all through.

But it's still quite consistent with Sauron's having thought the ring still existed all along. But enough on that...

[snip]

: : Nor does he say that he showed him any visions from the past.

: Aragorn could not have shown Sauron a vision of the future. He could only reveal what was or had been.

Yes -- my point in saying this was that I think Aragorn almost surely showed Sauron something that was currently the case...not something from the past.

: : And are you sure that this passage does not say that Sauron saw : : Aragorn as the heir of Isildur? Seems to me that that is : : exactly what the passage you cite states.

: What, exactly, does "the heir of Isildur" look like? How could Aragorn reveal himself in "other guise" without showing SOMETHING to Sauron?

You are making the words "other guise" do an awful lot of work. Indeed, as far as I can tell they are the sole basis for a rather substantial amount of speculation you've made. You may yet be right, but I really still think that the whole situation can be solved by treating "other guise" in much more mundane terms. This need not mean anything so striking -- the passage clearly says that Aragorn revealed himself as the heir of Isildur, weilding the blade of Elendil. Now, is that the way he looked at the moment he was speaking to Gimli and Legolas? I probably wouldn't call these different "guises," but then again, I don't talk like Aragorn in other matters either.

If you think he absolutely had to look substantially different to Sauron to fit with this two-word phrase, then allow him the star of Elendil or some other sort of rainment. I'm not sure even that's necessary. But in any case, I haven't seen any good alternatives yet. You admit Thorongil wouldn't work. Who else _but_ Aragorn could look like the heir of Isildur? What good, indeed, would any ancient vision do?

: You keep suggesting Aragorn would have shown himself as the heir of Isildur, but what do you think Sauron would have seen? What are YOU envisioning? Superman standing in front of the American Flag (I'm referring to the old George Reeves series, where the opening credits showed an idealized Superman posing)?

It's a great image (I haven't seen that show in years...it's nice to recall it), but no. I always imagined Aragorn, looking terrible and stern (look at Legolas's description on him on the ships sailing up from Pelegrir), clearly the future king come again, weilding the sword that cut the ring from Sauron's own finger.

[snip]

: : : Perhaps Aragorn recalled for Sauron the day Elrond told him : : : his true heritage, showing him the Sword that was Broken and : : : the Ring of Barahir, and possibly also the Sceptre of : : : Annuminas and the Star of the North (Tolkien doesn't say : : : Elrond didn't reveal these to Aragorn -- only that he : : : withheld). Such emblems of royalty should be unmistakable.

Well, I'm not particularly opposed to this. I don't think the text says it, but it doesn't rule it out. But I do believe that the text also makes it clear that Sauron saw Aragorn himself -- in _some_ form.

Who knows?

: : The need for all such speculations stem from your conviction : : that Aragorn could not have afforded to appear to Sauron as : : himself. But I remain unconvinced of this claim (I'm not _sure_ : : it's wrong, but I haven't seen any proof yet).

: My conviction is based on the fact that Aragorn says he appeared in "other guise". "Other" is used to imply "not this". Aragorn was saying, "[I did not appear to him as you see me now,] but in other guise than you see me here".

Well yes, I am familiar with the word "other." But you are ducking the challenge. You have coupled your interpretation of this phrase (I have offered another) with the claim that Aragorn could not have afforded to reveal himself in any recognizable form (hence your earlier guess at Thorongil) because then Sauron would be able to track him. It is this latter claim that I question. It seems to me that Sauron could track him regardless. If so, then this claim can offer no support for your interpretation of "other guise" over mine.

[snip]

But I'm not even sure at this point if we disagree so much. And it's getting late...