The White Council

Re: Anduin

Tolkien and Inklings Discussion

: : : : I would find it hard to justify an estimate of more than : : : : 100,000 people (Elves, Men, Hobbits, and Dwarves) living in : : : : Eriador at the time of the War of the Ring, and that is if : : : : you include both Dunland and Lindon (neither of which were : : : : part of Eriador).

: : : Too few Michael in my opinion, Eriador = 450,000 square miles : : : at a guess (Karen Fonstad) even the most underpopulated areas : : : of the world in medieval times for example supported about 1 : : : person per square mile...

: : Fortunately, Middle-earth is not medieval Europe. :) : No, but has similar techology and farming..

: : Remember, Tolkien was writing about an imaginary prehistoric era. The populations can be quite small because humanity was not very numerous. There was, in fact, a time when there were only a few hundred thousand people in Europe, probably no more than 25,000 years ago. By 10,000 years ago there may have been no more than 1,000,000 people in Europe.

: Agreed, I know what Tolkein was trying to portray, I am trying to look at what is practical and yet within the remit we have to remain within his framework. Tolkein was a Linguist and Author, not a demographics expert - I doubt he gave a damn about population figures, but it is insane to imagine so vast an area of good pasture and farming land to be almost devoid of population - think of population increase alone in the time periods allowed and thats without any settlers straying in to : 'get away from trouble' down south.

: : : ...Any less and in 1000 years Eriador is in total ruin and : : : incapable of supporting a reunited kingdom.....

: : Except that Gandalf pointed out there would be colonists coming up the Greenway after the War of the Ring. Gondor and Rohan seem to undertaken some seriously colonizing in the Fourth Age.

: Agreed, but colonise what?? If Eriador was really that sparse then the whole area would reduce to ruin and waste and be pretty much incapable of supporting human colonisation on any appreciable level - there must have been farming and maintenance to some degree of the road and ecosystems or The Shire/Bree-Land : would have disintegrated - they had to trade and this would HAVE (given the small sizes) to be localised. : : : : In "At the Sign of the Prancing Pony" Tolkien mentioned that : : : : there were no other "settled communities" of Men within 100 : : : : leagues (about 300 miles, in my opinion, since a league has : : : : no fixed distance) of the Shire.

: Settled, no, farms and homesteads and tiny hamlets/roaming camps yes.

: : : : There were still Men living in Cardolan, but they were very, : : : : very few, and probably were mostly hunters and woodsmen : : : : living far apart.

: yes, one every 3 sq miles = 150,000 for all Eridaor

: : : : There were also Men living in Eryn Vorn (a forested cape : : : : just southwest of the Shire). These were related to the : : : : Dunlendings and Breelanders, but their numbers appear to be : : : : few. They probably were woodmen, not too friendly to the : : : : Dunedain, and most likely never associating with the Elves : : : : (of whom they were afraid).

: : : : Aragorn's people lived beyond the Mitheithel, in the lands : : : : called the Angle. We don't know how many there were or even : : : : how many settlements they had. All the other ancient : : : : inhabitants of Eriador had been wiped out in the various : : : : wars, or the Great Plague.

: : : Well, I say the following : : : Hobbits - 200,000 : : : Elves of Lindon - Prob 30-50,000 before the war : : : Dunedain and followers - 50,000 or so spread across old : : : Arthedain : : : Dunland - 150 - 200,000 : : : Cardolan - 50,000 spread throughout : : : Tharbadians - 20,000 up and down the Gwathlo after Tharbad in : : : Ruins : : : Bree and area - 3,000 : : : That just about gives 1 per square mile, if they live in : : : villages/hamlets of 100 say, then that leaves still an area : : : that is desolate....(one village every 100 square miles) - ten : : : miles between each, anything larger - 300 say and its even : : : more desolate....

: : The problem is that most of Eriador WAS a wasteland. It was largely depopulated. So an average of 1 person per square mile is not necessary. And your numbers are way too high for at least some of the entries. Tharbad was no more than a "town" by the time it was abandoned. 20,000 people constitute a city's population. 50,000 Dunedain could have fielded a pretty decent army. So why did Halbarad only show up with 30 Rangers?

: Tharbad would have had a halo of surrounding villages and farms to survive and was probably the centre of a tiny kingdom/chieftainship - towns don't just appear on their own, there has to be a structure and economic system around - 20k represents the remnants of the town (say 5,000) and the farmers and villagers up and down the Gwathlo basin

: 30 were all that could be mustered in haste from the lengths and breadths of Eriador. I don't think the prof really expects us to believe that a handful of Dunedain could really have survived 1100 years alone in the wilderness without destroying the gene pool or perishing. : 50,000 - 25,000 women, 10,000 children and elderly, 15,000 men of mixed race (maybe 1500 Dunedain) half would farm, a quarter would be craftsmen/millers/bakers etc. A quarter left as possible soldiers - 3750, of these only pure Dunedain would likely be in the 'royal' rangers - 375, half away on missions/defence leaving 180 or so - 30 from this is pretty good in haste...... : Maybe I am 10 or 20,000 too high, but not by much I'd bet

: : : : Tolkein never says unpopulated, just deserted - difference in : : : semantics here

: : He says whole populations died out. That's very specific.

: Yes, from a probable pre-split(say 861-1409) population of 2 million or so - three quarters dead would indicate whole populations dying out.

: : : : I think that Men were reluctant to colonize Eriador after : : : : the fall of both Arnor and Angmar because the power of the : : : : Elves discouraged non-Edainic peoples from crossing the : : : : mountains and because there was no economic or military : : : : reason to do so. Sauron wanted to control the passage : : : : between Mirkwood and Mordor, so it makes sense for him to : : : : establish colonies in the southern part of the Forest (many : : : : Easterlings lived in or near southern Mirkwood). And while : : : : Gondor's power ran strong, the easy passage to the west -- : : : : through Calenardhon -- was blocked. The remnants of the : : : : Northmen held the Vales of Anduin for several centuries as : : : : well, and when Eorl settled in Calenardhon he undoubtedly : : : : prevented any further incursions into the northern vales.

: : : : So the way was blocked. But Orcs, Trolls, and other evil : : : : creatures appear to have spread into Eriador on more than : : : : one occasion, so it's not like ALL enemies were barred.

: : : Yes, and nothing would take them there but populations : : : sufficient to raid.......

: : No, they still needed to live, and they appear to have done just fine on their own. Most (if not all) of the raiding occurred at times when Sauron (or his servants) wanted something done.

: Why raid a wilderness?

: : : The Greenfields is a fairly minor engagment and only part of a : : : wider invasion...

: : That was an unusual event, and not representative of typical Orc activity.

: No, but it specifcally says that they invade and there is trouble for the Eriadorians - indicating a population base there. : To be honest, the nadir for Eriador has to be the fall of Arthedain and the 50 years afterwards - whatever is left after this must necessarily increase due to the nature of reproduction : Don Q

I think you do some serious overestimations. Tharbad was a small town not a city. There can't have been anything close to 50 000 duneadain and followers in Arnor. This would have constituted a military power to rival the rohirrim. I'm sure Halbarad could have gathered many more if such a population existed, even in a short time (it's not as if they would have live completely dispersed :). Nothing suggests such a high number of elves in Lindon either. Your population estimate of Lindon would seem more correct third age ca. 1400 when Lindon was still a military power. Your estimate of Dunland is in my opinion the poorest. It would make the dunlendings vastly superior to the rohirrim whom they hated with a vengeance. Nothing suggests this.