The White Council

Re: Anduin

Tolkien and Inklings Discussion

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: : : I think you do some serious overestimations. Tharbad was a small town not a city. There can't have been anything close to 50 000 duneadain and followers in Arnor. This would have constituted a military power to rival the rohirrim. I'm sure Halbarad could have gathered many more if such a population existed, even in a short time (it's not as if they would have live completely dispersed :). Nothing suggests such a high number of elves in Lindon either. Your population estimate of Lindon would seem more correct third age ca. 1400 when Lindon was still a military power. Your estimate of Dunland is in my opinion the poorest. It would make the dunlendings vastly superior to the rohirrim whom they hated with a vengeance. Nothing suggests this.

: Well that depends on what 'official' figures you are allegedly using. The Rohirrim numbered 200,000 in my opinion - the Dunalanders were scattered and caln like - when they united they overran Rohan, so I do have plenty to base my assumption on thank you.

You don't have plenty to base your assumptions on :) You have extremaly little to base them on.

: What do you mean nothing suggests such a high population for Lindon? In comparison to what might I ask??

I mean descriptions of the havens, the political role of Lindon and notes made by Tolkien in which he suggests that very few elves remained in Lindon at the end of the third age.

: What figures do you have, I am working on a logical use of size of realm against population spread/density

Since I work in systems analysis I know that a 'logical use of size of realm against population spread/density' is a highly unrealistic model unable to capture reality. The population of elves in Lindon has been dwindling since the beginning of the third age. In the last days of Arnor, Lindo was unable to support Arnor with a sufficient army. Only the great gondoreans intervension could turn the tide of the war. 1500 years of more dwindling and 'sailing west' later the population of Lindon was sentered around the havens. The actual size of Lindon matters little. Following your model of population estimation, Gondor would be vastly more populated because you fail to take into consideration factors other than area and possible density. Important factors in the Gondor model would be plagues and wars. In the Lindon model the most important factors to include would be a limited initial population, and rare demographic dynamics (leaving Middle Earth).

: The figures you appear to suggest are ridiculously small, mine are conservative at best

My figures are small period. Tolkien describes diminishing and politically unimportant populations. Your estimations suggest the presence of military and political power that are simply not there in Tolkiens writings. Furthermore they are based by your own admittance on severly biased and unrealistically simplified models that would never be able to capture population density dynamics.