The White Council

Re: Anduin

Tolkien and Inklings Discussion

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: : : : : I think you do some serious overestimations. Tharbad was a small town not a city. There can't have been anything close to 50 000 duneadain and followers in Arnor. This would have constituted a military power to rival the rohirrim. I'm sure Halbarad could have gathered many more if such a population existed, even in a short time (it's not as if they would have live completely dispersed :). Nothing suggests such a high number of elves in Lindon either. Your population estimate of Lindon would seem more correct third age ca. 1400 when Lindon was still a military power. Your estimate of Dunland is in my opinion the poorest. It would make the dunlendings vastly superior to the rohirrim whom they hated with a vengeance. Nothing suggests this.

: : Well that depends on what 'official' figures you are allegedly using. The Rohirrim numbered 200,000 in my opinion - the Dunalanders were scattered and caln like - when they united they overran Rohan, so I do have plenty to base my assumption on thank you.

: You don't have plenty to base your assumptions on :) You have extremaly little to base them on.

Well, the population of Dunland MUST be somewhere near the population of Rohan for them to unify and overthrow Rohan, so we are looking at numbers here, Rohan had an armed force of 12000+, which gives it a minimum population of say 36,000 (12k women, 12k children/elderly), thats if the army was EVERY able bodied man - unlikely. More likely a third serves in the army or less, so treble the population at minimum - 108,000.......

: : What do you mean nothing suggests such a high population for Lindon? In comparison to what might I ask??

: I mean descriptions of the havens, the political role of Lindon and notes made by Tolkien in which he suggests that very few elves remained in Lindon at the end of the third age.

OK noted, but again, depends on what 'very few' means. 25,000 for example IS very few (Gondor IMO had some 1 or 2 million at the end of the age). Also, the elves are simply NOT a military power at this time - their role has changed, they have withdrawn - so numbers do not have to support armed force. I remind you that the War of the Ring was not a Military campaign by the Free Peoples, only a defensive one - there is no need for the ELves to march to war.

: : What figures do you have, I am working on a logical use of size of realm against population spread/density

: Since I work in systems analysis I know that a 'logical use of size of realm against population spread/density' is a highly unrealistic model unable to capture reality. The population of elves in Lindon has been dwindling since the beginning of the third age. In the last days of Arnor, Lindo was unable to support Arnor with a sufficient army. Only the great gondoreans intervension could turn the tide of the war. 1500 years of more dwindling and 'sailing west' later the population of Lindon was sentered around the havens. The actual size of Lindon matters little. Following your model of population estimation, Gondor would be vastly more populated because you fail to take into consideration factors other than area and possible density. Important factors in the Gondor model would be plagues and wars. In the Lindon model the most important factors to include would be a limited initial population, and rare demographic dynamics (leaving Middle Earth).

Yes agreed, they are dwindling (only by sailing though) - they have children and other elves emigrate there before sailing - the dwindling is not as rapid as you might think - indeed the population of Lindon would have probably risen slightly in the early Fourth Age as the remaining elves seemed to not wish to leave and would be joined by further emigrants and new births. 25,000 for example would be a miniscule population for the Havens/Lindon combined and is therefore perhaops a good figure to settle on - Lindon IS miniscule in realm terms by this point yes... Maybe 30,000 early in the Foruth Age, and then a gradual decline over the centuries to nothing. Rememeber also, the dwindling of Lindon did not begin until Narya was removed (ca TA 1000)

: : The figures you appear to suggest are ridiculously small, mine are conservative at best

: My figures are small period. Tolkien describes diminishing and politically unimportant populations. Your estimations suggest the presence of military and political power that are simply not there in Tolkiens writings. Furthermore they are based by your own admittance on severly biased and unrealistically simplified models that would never be able to capture population density dynamics.

Not at all, perhaps 6-7 million in all NW middle Earth, an area much much larger than Europe - thats less than Anglo Saxon times, less than Roman times, and I think less than Greek city state, Egyptian hegenomy times - less than we have ever had in recorded history in Europe - so very small in other words (as you say)